MABADILIKO YA KIUCHUMI, JEPO TAYARI KUYAKABILI? DEBATE

It is no longer a question of when, but question of how deep the current global economic meltdown will entrench itself. The meltdown is rooting itself deeper on the global economies, and the impact is unequivocally spreading amongst the economically elite, while hitting harder amongst the economically disadvantaged.

Not an American or the Western mantra anymore, it is global. Central Banks across all continents have pumped enormous amounts of money to stimulate their economies in vain; there is a slow growth across the board, and there is little a common man can do to avert or reverse the trend, except being able to adjust to this inevitable and unwanted change. Economic CHANGE, that is.

Multinationals are laying-off massively, across all sectors. Announcement of retrenchments have become a routine, as companies are no longer able to maintain expensive payrolls, which have in turn affected consumer spending (consumption) and battered economies around the globe. Basically, people are holding tight their savings to counter any eventualities, if at all they have anything to hold on to.

Healthcare sector which is normally resilient to most recessions has finally been infected by this economic virus. Merck, a global pharmaceuticals giant for example, is laying-off 15% of her workforce in order to adapt to the economic CHANGE -consumer reduction of non- essential spending must bear the blame- and this could just be the beginning of a long trend in the sector, caused by the shaken labor market which is tightening even more.

Around the month of October, 2008 a client and a friend, who ran a two generation family business he inherited 25 years ago from his father, had to shut the company doors, and letting go of his 56 loyal employees. 35million dollars, of the company that was invested through a hedge fund firm melted away.

The man could not live to reconcile with a reality of orchestrating the demise of once, a healthy and prosperous company. He shouldered the responsibilities and regarded himself as a traitor to his predecessors who handed him a growing company, and to his children who were the future heirs to the multimillion dollar company. He decided to take his own life this past weekend, becoming one of the casualties of the current economic crisis.

Recently, a Tanzanian living in West Virginia, wrote me a very convincing letter, in which he claimed to have known me and my family back in Tanzania, and was requesting a small help of $300 he needed –his two month portion- to pitch into the monthly pool of $750 shared amongst five roommates. I made an effort and visited him; and his story could not be more painful.

His family in Tanzania including his mother who is ailing from diabetes, kissed goodbye the monthly allowance of $500 he has been sending for the past 4 years, 3 months ago. The Youngman is now worried not only for his mother who may die at any time, but also for his own future.

With his four other roommates hailing from West African nation of Gambia, they are bonded and supporting each other under the umbrella of African brotherhood, in the middle of racially sensitive town of Kay moor. These five African immigrants share something in common; they are all jobless, and none has a prospect of securing a job any time soon, despite the fact that, they are able, and ready to do any kind of work.

They were laid-off 5 months ago, from a coal plant where they met and worked. They have now depleted their savings, and neither one is in position to send money back to Tanzania or Gambia. All they are doing at this point is finding how to survive, and adapting to the new CHANGE of economic hardship.

Similar stories are everywhere. In Mumbai India, once lucrative American service centers that employed hundreds of thousands are closing. In New-York, and elsewhere within the US, joblessness, and homelessness among undocumented immigrants and Americans is Intimidating; some of the once highly paid professionals in different sectors are also in the jobless pack.

In Japan, the so called economic elites are struggling to pay their bills, in South Africa, the poor are sinking deeper into economic quandary, even in Dar es Salaam, I believe millions are experiencing the pain, and things are not getting any better.

There is no need to panic; things are going to turn around in not too distant future, but in the meantime, we need to make adjustments necessary to cope with this inevitable and unprecedented economic CHANGE.

Tanzanians in Diaspora remits millions of dollars a year back home to support their families, and at this time when some of their Western employers are worried about themselves too, cloud of uncertainty hangs over their employment future. As such, need to prepare psychologically for the inevitable is a matter of urgency.

Negative effects of either reduction or a complete halt to the remittance, may have some undesirable consequences to the people of Tanzania and the economy as a whole. In reality, I tend to see a dwindling and perhaps economic hardship of different proportion both to our fellow citizens abroad and those at home. Lifestyles across all social divides are going to be affected, because we all depend on each other for one reason or another.

I am therefore, counseling my people to adjust to the impending economic CHANGE by re-aligning their spending habits. Unnecessary spending must be avoided. Extreme extravagancy and flashy lifestyles must be controlled or put be put on hold for the time being. Nonetheless, we must not stop from going about our daily business while holding tight whatever little we may have. This should be the time for our national motto of brotherhood to shine by holding each other wherever we are, especially the economically vulnerable.

Although the current hardship bear hallmarks of a 1930 great depression, it will be far fetched to describe the current economic debacle as a depression, because there are some elements missing to call it a full blown depression. However, should the matter continue in the same pace, we will soon enter into a depression, whose effects will be tragic and devastating.

The 1930’s, great depression shook both rich and poor, it wiped savings, trimmed earning power of millions, and shut down well established businesses. Government agencies across the world suffered acute revenue shortages. The depression brought about horror and hopelessness amongst millions of pensioners in different nations, while thousands committed suicide because they could not bear the brunt, and never prepared themselves psychologically to deal with the harsh economic CHANGE.

Naturally, change is received with mixed feelings; in normal circumstances, some will resist it, while some will embrace it, depending on whose interest is at stake. But in extreme “situations” such as now, everybody willingly or unwillingly, MUST accept it. No one can resist it.

While I remain optimistic on the economic recovery, I am at the same time, cautioning those who believe that Tanzania is immune to these challenges to think twice; it is a matter of time before every single person directly or indirectly, feels the pain of the economic dilemma we are in. We must also be mindful of the fact that, whatever affects one directly, for some reasons, affects all of us indirectly, especially economically.

Even though I categorically acknowledge, and respect the existence of legitimate, ideological and philosophical differences, I am rather, urging prudence and rational reasoning from all us while debating this issue based on its substance and national importance, as opposed to personal differences that may exist.

Are we ready to face the coming economic CHANGE, and how?

Mungu Ibariki Tanzania
By John Mashaka
Mashaka.john@yahoo.com