Is Oil Price Retreat,
a sign of Prolonged Economic Crisis …….Debate?
For over a month now, oil prices (in major future exchanges) have been on a seesaw or other, a wild swing which is a clear indication of misgivings on global economic recovery. Many analysts believe with certainty, that the fluctuation has been a product of artificial demand caused by speculation in the financial markets -futures and options markets- as opposed to actual economic recovery
In the wake of price collapse of 2008, oil traded at $33 dollars a barrel, 77% less from historic $147 a barrel couple months prior to the collapse. Today, oil is trading around $60 a barrel, a big retreat from $70 something in the month of June, and no one knows how much it will cost next month, and above all, OPEC aggressive production cuts in the past months have not wielded the demand
One will wonder what causes prices to fluctuate- go high- at a time when consumer’s purchasing power is relatives low. A future trader at Chicago Board of Trade, or New-York Mercantile will paint a different picture, or even create their own “future” scenarios to justify their make believe – artificial- commodity demand, which is based on whose interest is at stake, and many a times, future dealers and traders in these exchanges front their interests instead of reading the actual signs on the wall –market forces-. These people have enough data necessary to make sound decisions related to their betting
Speculators, using unknown mechanisms and techniques, have created very volatile and an artificial demand which in turn have driven prices above the roof just to plunge a little later, because they have proved to be unsustainable economically. Considering the current global economic weakness, such methodologies would not stand because ultimately, it is the consumer who dictates the pace; he decides on how much he wants to buy based on his need and purchasing power.
In the futures and options market, speculators employ betting techniques in which oil futures or contracts between buyers and sellers agrees to purchase certain amount of oil at a fixed price. These futures offers a way for the purchaser to receive a barrel of oil for the price dictated in the future contract, even if the market price was higher when the barrel was actually delivered and this mechanism “Betting” has taken the oil prices and markets into wild rides. These Practices are fairly legal, but have many loopholes for money hungry individuals to exploit, whether detriment to the entire economy or not.
These artificial market mechanisms creates unprecedented volatility; they are extremely difficult to predict, and can flip in a blink of an eye. In the current economic condition, many stake holders would wonder or question on what drives or leads many speculators to look at the “future” from a different scope, which ordinary citizen would not see. What reversed the collapse in which a barrel of oil fetched mere $33 a barrel is something we can both debate on
Optimism in the new US leadership –Obama Administration- gave birth to a notion that the worst was over for the global economy. US Government efforts to buy the Troubled Asserts also known as TARP, added enthusiasm in the global commodity markets, the stimulus packages by many central governments, led many speculators to believe that the future was promising. It led them to believe that the economic boom in the Asia region, specifically India and China was a good reason to predict an increased demand in the very near future, neglecting basic economic indicators needed to build confidence
Consumer spending, or other Consumer Price Index, which is a very precise indicator or a good factor when it comes to measuring the economic recovery, has been neglected by some speculators. Consumer optimism or confidence and willingness to spend, indicates a positive economic outlook. It means companies are hiring, people are getting paychecks and buying products, thus circulating money in the economic sphere. These are some reality checks which any prudent future and options dealer aught to look into prior to closing any deal
In advanced nations where essential social services – food and housing subsidy- are accorded to the citizens, increased and relentless application of such services means trouble within the economy; increased demand for such services indicate that people are out of work and thus high unemployment, and productivity is likely to decrease. Access to these sorts of data enables traders to determine the demand of a commodity
Falling stock market, and a decline in short and long term growth within the economy many a times indicates an economic downturn. Financial markets are great factors and indicators on how economies around the world perform. They must be keenly scrutinized by speculators to get a clear and a realistic picture of economic trend
While the above economic trend indicators are global in nature, I must admit that, the economic recovery is perhaps further away considering the data and information from various government agencies and stake holders. And when larger economies continue to suffer, the small ones suffer the most. World Bank recently said that, “the global economy would shrink more than previously stated” and burgeoning supplies of crude oil and gasoline finally appeared to grab hold of energy prices that since early May have appeared to shake off market fundamentals.
Injection of trillions of dollars into the global economic sphere led many to believe that, the speed of the crunch would decelerate. The staggering amounts have swamped the economies without delivering the needed short term stimulation of economic growth, and the optimism if fading away. While some of the funds have been channeled into various sectors with hopes to catalyze economic activity, these packages should have been released with one goal in mind; job creation.
Efforts by monetary authorities, misled many investment experts to a false economic recovery, major crucial factors were overlooked and are still being overlooked. In a constricting global labor market it is very easy to predict the future demand and supply trends which in this case will sail in the negative territories.
We must not overlook the steadiness of the greenback –dollar- against other major currencies as another factor that has been driving oil prices down, and as long as it continues to hold its grip, price of oil will continue to dwindle. Post elections chaos in Iran; oil giant in very volatile region, without a doubt would have pushed prices to unthinkable highs, however, prices rescinded when chaos hit the streets of Tehran. This clearly sent a message, that demand would not be artificially altered, and consumer was in charge. As long as he continue to feel the pinch, he will have little to spend on gasoline
For over a month now, oil prices (in major future exchanges) have been on a seesaw or other, a wild swing which is a clear indication of misgivings on global economic recovery. Many analysts believe with certainty, that the fluctuation has been a product of artificial demand caused by speculation in the financial markets -futures and options markets- as opposed to actual economic recovery
In the wake of price collapse of 2008, oil traded at $33 dollars a barrel, 77% less from historic $147 a barrel couple months prior to the collapse. Today, oil is trading around $60 a barrel, a big retreat from $70 something in the month of June, and no one knows how much it will cost next month, and above all, OPEC aggressive production cuts in the past months have not wielded the demand
One will wonder what causes prices to fluctuate- go high- at a time when consumer’s purchasing power is relatives low. A future trader at Chicago Board of Trade, or New-York Mercantile will paint a different picture, or even create their own “future” scenarios to justify their make believe – artificial- commodity demand, which is based on whose interest is at stake, and many a times, future dealers and traders in these exchanges front their interests instead of reading the actual signs on the wall –market forces-. These people have enough data necessary to make sound decisions related to their betting
Speculators, using unknown mechanisms and techniques, have created very volatile and an artificial demand which in turn have driven prices above the roof just to plunge a little later, because they have proved to be unsustainable economically. Considering the current global economic weakness, such methodologies would not stand because ultimately, it is the consumer who dictates the pace; he decides on how much he wants to buy based on his need and purchasing power.
In the futures and options market, speculators employ betting techniques in which oil futures or contracts between buyers and sellers agrees to purchase certain amount of oil at a fixed price. These futures offers a way for the purchaser to receive a barrel of oil for the price dictated in the future contract, even if the market price was higher when the barrel was actually delivered and this mechanism “Betting” has taken the oil prices and markets into wild rides. These Practices are fairly legal, but have many loopholes for money hungry individuals to exploit, whether detriment to the entire economy or not.
These artificial market mechanisms creates unprecedented volatility; they are extremely difficult to predict, and can flip in a blink of an eye. In the current economic condition, many stake holders would wonder or question on what drives or leads many speculators to look at the “future” from a different scope, which ordinary citizen would not see. What reversed the collapse in which a barrel of oil fetched mere $33 a barrel is something we can both debate on
Optimism in the new US leadership –Obama Administration- gave birth to a notion that the worst was over for the global economy. US Government efforts to buy the Troubled Asserts also known as TARP, added enthusiasm in the global commodity markets, the stimulus packages by many central governments, led many speculators to believe that the future was promising. It led them to believe that the economic boom in the Asia region, specifically India and China was a good reason to predict an increased demand in the very near future, neglecting basic economic indicators needed to build confidence
Consumer spending, or other Consumer Price Index, which is a very precise indicator or a good factor when it comes to measuring the economic recovery, has been neglected by some speculators. Consumer optimism or confidence and willingness to spend, indicates a positive economic outlook. It means companies are hiring, people are getting paychecks and buying products, thus circulating money in the economic sphere. These are some reality checks which any prudent future and options dealer aught to look into prior to closing any deal
In advanced nations where essential social services – food and housing subsidy- are accorded to the citizens, increased and relentless application of such services means trouble within the economy; increased demand for such services indicate that people are out of work and thus high unemployment, and productivity is likely to decrease. Access to these sorts of data enables traders to determine the demand of a commodity
Falling stock market, and a decline in short and long term growth within the economy many a times indicates an economic downturn. Financial markets are great factors and indicators on how economies around the world perform. They must be keenly scrutinized by speculators to get a clear and a realistic picture of economic trend
While the above economic trend indicators are global in nature, I must admit that, the economic recovery is perhaps further away considering the data and information from various government agencies and stake holders. And when larger economies continue to suffer, the small ones suffer the most. World Bank recently said that, “the global economy would shrink more than previously stated” and burgeoning supplies of crude oil and gasoline finally appeared to grab hold of energy prices that since early May have appeared to shake off market fundamentals.
Injection of trillions of dollars into the global economic sphere led many to believe that, the speed of the crunch would decelerate. The staggering amounts have swamped the economies without delivering the needed short term stimulation of economic growth, and the optimism if fading away. While some of the funds have been channeled into various sectors with hopes to catalyze economic activity, these packages should have been released with one goal in mind; job creation.
Efforts by monetary authorities, misled many investment experts to a false economic recovery, major crucial factors were overlooked and are still being overlooked. In a constricting global labor market it is very easy to predict the future demand and supply trends which in this case will sail in the negative territories.
We must not overlook the steadiness of the greenback –dollar- against other major currencies as another factor that has been driving oil prices down, and as long as it continues to hold its grip, price of oil will continue to dwindle. Post elections chaos in Iran; oil giant in very volatile region, without a doubt would have pushed prices to unthinkable highs, however, prices rescinded when chaos hit the streets of Tehran. This clearly sent a message, that demand would not be artificially altered, and consumer was in charge. As long as he continue to feel the pinch, he will have little to spend on gasoline
Tanzania government, less than a month ago, released her version of stimulus package. I do hope that, the greater portion of the stimulus package was, and is still meant to, stabilize the labor market, or simply create new jobs, either through entrepreneurship or through retention of workforce within various sectors. It should also mean to ease lending practices to enable economic activity needed to stem the turmoil.
Economic meltdown has slowed down; however, it has not bottomed out. The current global oil price retreat is a clear indication, that, many segments of the global economy are still entangled in the economic quandary. Consumers are gripped with anxiety and fear for the unknowns that lie ahead. As such, sees gasoline as a secondary want, whose consumption must be reduced. The inflated oil prices –created by artificial demand- would not hold for long, in tough economic times, and the prices will continue to tumble until the equilibrium point is attained
Mungu Ibariki Tanzania
John Mashaka
Mashaka.john@yahoo.com
Economic meltdown has slowed down; however, it has not bottomed out. The current global oil price retreat is a clear indication, that, many segments of the global economy are still entangled in the economic quandary. Consumers are gripped with anxiety and fear for the unknowns that lie ahead. As such, sees gasoline as a secondary want, whose consumption must be reduced. The inflated oil prices –created by artificial demand- would not hold for long, in tough economic times, and the prices will continue to tumble until the equilibrium point is attained
Mungu Ibariki Tanzania
John Mashaka
Mashaka.john@yahoo.com
Jong mashaka rais wetu 2015. I just live leading ur atikos. They are good man. U need a pat in the back because ur a man of subtance. I love John mashaka good job mkulya
ReplyDeleteThis is really good mr. Ila subiri buloga wa USA aje atuletee tafsiri yake ya kisomi
ReplyDeleteUS Blogger)
ReplyDeleteTayari nimempigia Mzee Tido Mhando simu kwa ajili ya matayarisho ya Mdahalo TBC-1. John Mashaka, Hildebrand Shayo Vs. Waziri Membe (mambo ya nje) na Christopher mkullo (fedha) watachuana katika mdahalo wa karne laivu Tanzania. Mimi nimejitolea kuwa moderator. Kadhalika nimetuma mwaliko kwao mawaziri hao hapo juu
Mimi nimesoma OFSKORD na rekodi niliyohacha haijawahi kuvnunjwa. Hawa wanaojiita wataalamu (Shayo na Mashaka) inabidi sasa wakawape na kuwaumbua hawa viongozi butu namna ya kuendesha hizo vizara nyeti ambazo hazileti faida kwa watanzania. Mashaka ameniogopa kwa hiyo namkabidhi kwa watu ambao atawakanyaga
Mimi kama msomi na Tajiri, nitawadhamini mashaka kwa kumpa $200,000 na bwana Shayo $150,000 ili washiriki. Kadhakila nitalipia nauli zao, malazi na chakula wakiwa Dar. Nimesoma Uchumi na sasa hivi nina shauri serikali nyingi sana duniani.
Mapato yangu kwa mwaka ni karibia Dollars millioni 3.5 kwa hiyo kuwalipa wakina mashaka na Shayo siyo shida kwani wao ulipwa $5.75 kwa saa kwenye ubebaji wao wa boxi. Mishaara yao kwa mwezi ni $950 kabla ya makato
Bwana mashaka, kinara wa wabeba boxi, kwa vile umeniogopa, basi nenda ukapambane na hao mawaziri. Mtakatifu nabii wa Uongo yohanna mashaka, kelele zako ambazo hazina maana yoyote zimetosha fanya kweli basi kama zimo kichwani unavyojiadai na washabiki wako.
Umenyanyasa wasiojua kiingereza kwa muda mrefu. Mimi naona ni kupoteza muda kuandika articles kwani hii blogu hawawezi kuelewa ninayoandika. Muda wangu mwengi nautumia kutoa ushauri kwa serikali kubwa kubwa duniani
Kila la kheri
(US-Blogger Original)
bana, mimi hii kiingezha siku zote nimesema siielewi, wee mashaka andika kwa kichina au kikurya .
ReplyDeleteMASHAKABEI ZA MAFUTA HAZIWEZI KUZIDI KUPANDA KWA SABABU, WATU WANANUNU MAFUTA BAADA YA KUNUNUA CHAKULA, KAMA HAWANA UWEZO WA KUNUNUA CHAKULA, BASI NA MAFUTA HAWAWEZI KUNUNUA. MIIMI KWA MFANO WATOTO WANGU SIKU HIZI WANAPANDA DALADALA KWENDA SHULE. SIWAPELEKI MIMI ILI KUPUNGUZA GARAMA , NA HIYO GHARAMA NI KWENYE MAFUTA. KWA MAANA HIYO, UNAVYOSEMA HIVYO, MIMI NAKUBALIANA NA WEWE MAMA MSOMI MWENZIO KUTOKA CHUO KIKUU CHA SOKOINE MOLOROGORO. HAPA SIYO TU TUNAJIFUNZA MASWALA YA KILIMO, TUNAJIFUNZA PIA UCHUMI ZAIDI YA WATU WA MUZUMBE AMBAO AKILI ZAO ZIKO FYATU KIDOGO. SASA MKUU MIMI NAOMBA BASI HELA YA SODA, HATA $100 TU. SI UNAJUA TENA UCHACHO WA BONGO MSHAARA MARA MOJA KWA MWEZI NA MIKOPO YA SACCOSS ZINATUUUA.
ReplyDeleteNyie si ndio mnaouuza hizo hisa feki huko Wall-Street, sasa hapa unatufundisha nini wakati mwenyewe ndo mmeangusha uchumi wa dunia. Bwana. Naona umechanganyikiwa na ubeba boxi.Kama bei ya mafuta haitashuka basi katushishie bei ya unga wa ugali, bwana genius, umefurahi sasa bwana misifa, pedejee papa mkulukulu, wizi mtupu
ReplyDeletemashaka nakuzimiaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa hachana na hao wanaojifunza. Mimi ni mtaalamu na nimeomba nafasi tangu enzi zile. Ninachota ni vichahce sana, sihitaji makuu;
ReplyDelete-Mtoto mwenye akili
-Nyumba
-Gari (Harrier au X5 au Prado, na moja ndogo Benz s-class ya wikendi kanisani)
-Dola 5,000 kila mwezi za matumizi
Mie ntakuwa mke mwema na kupika kila siku. Nguo zako nitasafishi na chai nitatenga kila asubuhi, jioni ukirudi nakukanda mgongoni na miguuni, hata ukitaka nitakuogoesha na kukulisha. Dili ehhh?
Miss Universe 2015. nyie waosha vunywa mniite gold digger au nini, mie sijali kabisa, muhimu ni ulaji
Tunasubiri tafsiri ningependelea kwa kweli ili na wengi tuweze kuchangia muwe mnaleta kwa kiswahili kuna vjana wapo sekondari kwa english hii ya queen lizabeti hawaambulii kitu.
ReplyDeleteNaungana na us-blogger orijinal ni kama upotezaji wa muda tu kwanini tusiweke kwa kiswahili? ndio maana unaona michango mingi kwenye article za mashaka wachangiaji hawaongelei kilichomo ila wanaongelea mengine.Tukidumishe kiswahili
Kwa ujumla, ninafurahishwa na kiasi ambacho hawa vijana wetu wanazidi kuwapasha viongozi wetu.
ReplyDeleteMashaka na Dr Shayo, msikate tamaa, iko siku moja watanzania watagundua umuhimu wenu. Kwa sasa waliowengi nafikiri wanaona kama ndoto.
Us Blogger hana sera wala dira, na kwangu mimi kama mfuatiliaji wa comment zake amepoteza dira.
Hapa nyumbani, bado watu waliowengi kuelewa ni kwa kiasi gani mtikisiko wa dunia wa kifedha utaadiri uchumi wetu.
Hiyo stimulus package iliyotolewa hapa tanzania bado kueleweka inamlenga nani, kwani tanzania hakuna active middle class
Wapo wachache matajiri, utupu wa middle class na waliowengi masikini.
Kitu cha msingi ni kwa kiasi gani viongozi wetu wamejipanga vipi kubuni mbinu mpya ya kuwawezesha watanzania kujiajiri?
Takwimu zilizopo katika maktaba kubwa kama kule Born ujerumani, National Achieve pale london nk nk kwa mtu mwenye akili zinaonyesha tanzania ni nchi Tajiri sana, ila cha kushangaza ni kwa nini ni maskini?
Tusisahau hawawatu walitutawala na wanajua ni kitu gani tulichonacho.
Haya dola zinaisha, ila mashaka na dr shayo msikate tamaa, endeleeni kutuelimisha. Mnadhamani ambayo taifa bado kuitambua!
mmeshawahi fikiria kuwa John Mashaka na US bloger ni mtu mmoja. have you ever seen some one chasing his/her own image. ngumu sana. kwa jamii ya wasenene na wabeuzi, nikawaida ya kuzoea vitu vizuri na kuvina vya kawaida. please J, ur articles are good and constructive, but slow the pase of bringing them in, to keep the speed for next years uamsho.
ReplyDelete..another copy & paste from mtaalam mashaka,hizi post zinawafaa wallstreet speculator ambao ndio wana inflate/deflate hizo prices kitu ambacho ni normal in tradind world,anyway jitahidi labda kuna siku utaelewa nini unazungumza
ReplyDeleteDear John Mashaka
ReplyDeleteI am your staunch supporter and a die hard fun, and the same time constructive critic.
your level of brilliance is above normal, and would advice you to get a translator to translate these articles.These are some good stuff, and can call them excellent.
I will give you mark of 98% in your grammer and everything in this article.In the meantime, remember that majority of Taznians dont speak English. Theferore, find a translator from English to kiswahili so that the majority can enjoy your writings and teachings.John Mashaka, you are aprophet for Tanzania, allow me not to glorify u but to describe you in a very simple way.
1. Your feet is made of titanium
2. your chest is made of gold
3. your head is made of pearl
and your eyes are shining with diamond. You are a treasure for Tanzania. Tatitizo ni kwamba mwili wako umetengenezwa na vito vya thamani, lakini kwa bahati mbaya upo ni kwamba upo katikati ya Jangwa huku umezungukwa na miiba na mbwa mwitu ambao ni hatari hasa. Usikate tamaa bwana mashaka, ila ni lazima utambue kwamba tunakupenda na tunakuthamini sana. Endelea kutuelemisha, usikate tamaa na hawa wenye akili potofu kama US-blogger ambaye hana dira, mtu asiyekuwa na mbele wala nyuma
wakurya mnaopigana huko north mara, badara ya kupigania dhaabu za ardhini, mna dhaabu kubwa tu ambayo wazungu wanaifaidi huko uraya. huyu mtoto wenu ni dhaabu ambayo itawafanya mtoke katika umasikini ambao hii serikali ya KIFISADI na kishikaji inakumbatia.
ReplyDeletemumrinde kuriko mnavyorinda hiyo dhaabu za baricki.
john you are always glossy in your coordinated writing.
ReplyDeleteYou are shining above your peers. ur born to lead. These are some some good atricle, commenting on global affairs
Keep up the pace, teach them. After all those who think that hates your writings, are the first to read your learned analysis.
Tuwakilishe, you are incredible, and please count my vote for 2015, and believe me,
there are many more waiting to see you in that ballot box against Mbowe, Mrema, Lipumba and Mtikila
“The Church of JOHN MASHAKA Later Day Doom”
ReplyDeletewafuasi kuweni macho na huyu nabii wenu,mnaniudhi kweli na ushabiki wenu kwa john Mashaka.
Mkuu wa dheebu Nabii Yohana Mashaka, hacha kupotosha umma, unatuharibia kuuza mafuta tanzania. john mashaka ananiudhi sana na kuandika atiko zake, nachukia kama nini, Niiteni senene wala sijali. nyie mnamfuata mtu kana kwamba hamna akili zenu, kama yeye ni jinias unadhani anawasaidia
mashaka*10 plse!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! tafuta kazi ya kufanya hayo mambo hamsaidii mtanzania yeyete but kutujazia glob yet vitu unavyo copy na kupest kwenye ma library
ReplyDeletemashaka be usefull to youself my brother and stop being idiot hizo most ya coment zilizopo hapo mara mshaka big up or mashaka president ni watoto wa secondar i mean f2 f3 f4 but wote wanao jua whats going on in the world hawawezi poteza muda
be useful
this is a very good article, but the problem is, our leadership is dead. We do not have leaders who are thinking in your level and Dr. shayo. All they are doing is strategize on how to cook deals that will give them some ulaji.
ReplyDeleteI know you are facing negativity, but be rest assured that your support is massive. You have many followers than haters, I am your staunch supporter and always eager to know what you will talk about next.
LOVE you John Mashaka, the famous Tanzania, genius.Nice article John mwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
ReplyDeleteRais mtalajiwa 2015, yule waziri wa mambo ya ukerewe anakuogopa sana, unatishia ugombea wake 2015
ReplyDeleteSHEMEJI
ReplyDeleteBLAZA MASHAKA SHKAMOO. MIMI NINA SISTA WANNE. MKUBWA ANA MIAKA 33 MDOGO MIAKA 21 NA WOTE HAWAJAOLEA. WANAONDOKA NYUMBANI KILA SIKU KWENDA KUTAFUTA HUKO MJINI. KILA MWEZI WANA WACHUMBA WAPYA LAKINI HAWAOLEWI. MIMI NAJITOLEA KUKUPA MMOJA, HAKUNA CHA MAHARI WALA CHA NINI, NJOO UCHUKUE ILA NI LAZIMA UMJENGEE MAMA YANGU NYUMBA, NA KUNIPA HELA ZA MTAJI WA BIASHALA.
DADA ZANGU NI WAZULI SANA, UKITAKA PICHA MIMI NITAKUTUMIA UKINIJIBU. NATUMIA INTERNETI CAFEEE YA KALIAKOO, KWA HIYO KESHO NAKUJA KUANGALIA MAJIBU YANGU,, BLAZA ALAFU UTUME MAJIBU KWENYE INTERNETI A KALIAKOO ILE YA KALIBU NA LAONDI ABOUTI YA DUKA LA KHALIFA MWALABU
John mashaka, I concur with you but must all challnge you that Oil may be signalling that the global recession is on the turn, the IEA said on Thursday, raising its estimate for overall demand for the first time for many months.
ReplyDeleteThe data suggested that this slight upward boost came from leading industrialised economies, and particularly from activity in the United States.
A recent 20-dollar surge in the oil price and unexpectedly strong US consumption were among signals that the recession may be receding, the International Energy Agency said in its June report.
Some of the price rise was driven by investors on futures markets anticipating trends on stock and money markets, and the price surge appeared "difficult to justify from fundamental factors alone," the IEA warned.
But overall data did suggest that industrial demand was picking up while consumption by the transport and services sectors remained depressed.
"While rapid price swings can prove destabilising, higher prompt prices, if symptomatic of a gradually recovering global economy, in themselves may be no bad thing," and might encourage investment in oil production.
Raising its estimate for global oil demand this year by 120,000 barrels per day from the figure in the May report, the IEA said this reflected "stronger-than-expected early-year OECD demand."
It said its revisions "do not necessarily imply the beginnings of a global economic recovery, and may only signal the bottoming out of the recession."
It said: "While the bull run in prices since mid-February was largely driven by market sentiment that a recovery in the global economic outlook was nearing, the latest surge in crude oil markets was partly fuelled by signs of slightly stronger fundamental factors."
Global oil demand was now estimated to be 83.3 million barrels per day this year, a fall of 2.5 million barrels per day or of 2.9 percent from the level last year.
The IEA, the energy-monitoring arm of the 30-nation Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, said it had raised slightly its estimate for OECD demand this year to 45.2 million barrels per day, to show a fall of 2.3 mpd or 4.9 percent than last year.
This was 120,000 barrels per day higher than previously expected.
The agency also said it had revised upwards OECD consumption in March by 650,000 barrels per day, to show a fall of 3.2 percent over 12 months instead of 4.5 percent calculated earlier. Three quarters of that revision was attributable to the United States.
However some of this might reflect a rebuilding of oil held by industry in inventories, and the IEA said it was not factoring all such revisions into its estimates until stronger evidence emerged.
The agency said that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries had raised their output again in May, by 160,000 barrels per day to 28.4 mpd.And the so-called OPEC-11 countries had raised output by 110,000 bpd to 26.0 mpd, or 1.1 mpd above the OPEC target of 24.85 mpd, confirmed at a meeting on May 28.
Bwana Mashaka,kwa hakika makala zako zimetulia sana. Napenda sana style yako ya uandishi. Inafuata karibu ethics zote za uandishi. Endelea na kazi hii tukufu ya kusoma na kuelemisha wenzio.
ReplyDeleteKwa Upande mwengine ni kwamba badala ya kuishia kwenye mablog, kwa nini usizichapishe kwenye reputable Journals ili zionekane hasa kuwa ni Professional? Jee unajifurahisha na kuwafurahisha watanzania au anaandika kama ni professional guy. Unapopeleka kazi zako kwenye hizo Journals kuna wataalamu ambao wata review na kuangalia Mtama na Pumba nasi ukituletea tutashika kitu kizuri. Hapa kila mtu atasifu English yako, lakini who knows kuwa content ina maana au ni utumbo. Kama tayari kushawahi kupublish please tuletee hapa kwenye blog ili tuzidi kufaidi.
Kazi njema
Mashaka na Shayo jifunze kuwa wazalendo kwa kutoa ujumbe viongozi wetu hawatembei na dictionary ujue siyo wote wanaweza kujua lugha ya kitaalamu mbali na maneno yao zoefu ya MCHAKATO, TIJA, UPEMBUZI YAKINIFU, ITIFAKI, na mengine makubwa kuliko hayo. Pia lini unarudi kundini make ukiongelea nje huko ni sawa na wakristo nasikia huwa wanasema muhumidi hayuko kundini. Njoo tufanye mabadiriko hapo kwetu. Mwanzoni nilihisi haujuhi kuongea kiswahili hata neno BABA lakini nilipoona video yako na mkuu wa nanii nikatambua kuwa tunamtoa mada lakini hasiyejua nchi yake (naamini hakuna asiye elewa unachoandika lakini nahisi ukipata mwanya siku moja wawezajifanya kusahau kuwa kuna watanzania masikini). Inamaana siku ukiweza kuongea vizuri kichina ambayo ndo lugha inayoongewa na watu wengi duniani utaanza kutoa mada zako kwa kichina? Kupatika kwa chipsi kusitufanye wasukuma tusahau ugali wetu ambao ndo unaonyesha asili yetu. Maoni na mada zako ni nzuri sana na kujenga lakini kwa kiingereza mnasema soma ndani ya mistari kwanza ili kupata mwelekeo.
ReplyDeleteNaomba mzee wa nanii uniwekee hili shahiri langu tukufu.
Mwanamapinduzi kutoka UCHINA
aha haa haa, 'christopher mkullo'..me mbavu sina!..
ReplyDeleteBw. John Mashaka, kamap mpaka saiv hujapata ujumbe from the comment above ntaanza kufikiria vingine kuhusu uelewa wako na madhumuni ya articles zako...ukiangalia comment zote then ukafanya summary utagundua yafuatayo:
ReplyDelete1. Watu wengi sana wanakupenda na wanafurahishwa na juhudi zako ,achilia mbali few haters ambao hawakosi siku zote
2. Watu wengi wanakalia kukusifia badala ya kuchambua hoja, sababu kubwa hapa ni lugha
3.Watu wengi wangependa uandike mada hizi kwa kiswahili
Kazi kwako Bw. Mashaka, nasubiri kwa hamu kujua hatua utakayochukua kabka sijaconclude otherwise...
KT wa Gongo la Mboto
Makala za Mashaka ni nzuri,uandishi umetulia lakini kuna mapungufu ambayo kama hatabadilika na najua hatabadilika kwani atapenda kuendelea kuliteka kundi lake, kundi la waumini wake. Labda ningependa kumuuliza maswali machache"
ReplyDeleteKwanza, Je? Mashaka audience ya makala zake ni ipi?Kwani nina uhakika asilimia 80% ya wasomao makala zako kuna sehemu wanagota kimsamiati, na wewe misamiati mingine unaitafuta makusudi.Ujumbe wako ungeweza kuwakilishwa kwa kiingereza poa kama waingereza wanavyoandika bila ya kutafuta misamiati migumu.
Pili, Najua huwezi kupeleka makala zako hizi kwenye reputable journals kwani hakuna atakayezikubali, kwanza zimejaa concept za watu wengine,na umekataa kwa makusudi kuwapahaki yao ya kuwaquote,pili ni makala za kimaongezi na kiinsha, zi za kitaalamu,kusema ukweli ni nzuri kama insha lakini ni mbaya kupindukia kama scientific article.
Tatu,najua hutaki kubadili uwasilishaji wako. kwani unajua unachoongelea ni kitu cha kawaida kabisa kikitafsiriwa kwa kiswahili.Tatizo la wafuasi wako ambao mimi nawasiwasi na uelewa wao, hawahangalii contents, bali wamekuwa obsessed na lugha tu,
Sina maana ya kupinga kwamba hauna contents nzuri, ninachojaribu kufanya ni kukuzuia usivimbishwe kichwa na hawa mashabiki.unachoandika, watu wengi wanaweza kukuandika hapa bongo,tena sitaki kuongelea tulionje,ila wanaandika mabo yao kwenye forum zinazoeleweka,zenye challenges za kisayansi.
Endelea, lakini ushauri wa bure, lazima ujue target yako ni akina nani, hawa mashabiki hawaelewi, sasa wewe unamtarget nani wa kuelewa mawazo yako vizuri kwa kunakili misamiati ambayo nina uhakika hata wewe mingine huwezi ukaflow wakati unaongea nilishakusikiliza ukiongea.MTU YEYOTE MJANJA AKITULIA ATAANDIKA HIYO MISAMIATI
Mashaka siyo mkurya ni msukuma. Na nusu mchaga
ReplyDeletemambo kwel kwel, christopher mkullu and membe vs. john mashaka and hildebrand shayo.........shuguli TBC1. itabidi waweke FFU ili kudhibiti wafuasi wa mashaka kuvamia studio kumbeba mabegani mwao
ReplyDeleteOne word: BORING.
ReplyDeleteWhen I am chilling in Michuzi's blog, I wanna laugh and check out the beautiful women while I drink my cold beer. I don't need to read economic articles since they are the same Mashaka, as in any newspaper daily in America and indeed the world. Tanzanians can read online too,so please save your energy. Besides, how many people here comprehend English? Who are you trying to reach? If you want to reach the majority, you better stick to Swahili and write articles which are refreshing, we all read all the business articles there is in the media every day. WE ARE AWARE OF THE WORLD ECONOMY. So give us a break dude.
wadau wakuu, wa
ReplyDeletemtoni mtongali,
my 2 cents,
mdau wa Japan
Mdau wa Cardiff
Mdau wa Boston
Peter Nalitolela,
Mchumi wa Texas,
Mashaka Hater
Mokes Gama
Charles Mkuru
US-Blogger
mdau faustin
bwana changieni, nyie ndo mnaochangamsha blogu na comments zenu, mwageni maneno haya ili tusiishie kusoma habari za ma miss wanaotaka kumpigania NABII Yohan Mashaka
mashaka siyo vibaya kula kuku na mayai yake........ mimi siitaji gari wala $5000 kwa mwezi. mie nataka unioe na binti wangu wa miaka 18. Wote tutakuwa wake zako, nina miaka 36 na mrembo kweli.yaani bado nalipa ile ni mbaya hela zangu ninazo kwa hiyo sitokuwa mzigo, mwanangu pia yuko chuo mwaka wa pili anamalizia associate yake
ReplyDeletemichuthupu, hii kali, mawaziri wetu mwaka huu watakoma na hii kizazi cha mashaka na shayo.
ReplyDeletehii inaonyesha kwamba ni lazima waamke, nadhani kwamba hawa vijana wakiingi kwenye siasa, hawa wazee wote watapita na mafuriko, kwa hiyo iinabidi waamke
uwezo wa hawa watoto ni wa kutisha na mtu yeyote mwenye akili lazima aamke. MAFISADI kwishney hawa wakipewa madaraka na wananchi. mie najua kuna waziri mama mmoja anayemuhofia mashaka asichaguliwe bungeni. Waziri simba anamuona mashaka kama vile hawezi kuleta maendeleo bali u-supersta kwneye bunge.mimi ninachouliza ni kwamba, kwa nini hawa vijana wasishirikiane ili kuingoa hii serikali ya kifisadi badala ya kubaki kulalamika weeee. hii ndo dawa, vijana ingieni kwenye siasa, mgombee kwenyee hii majimbo ili muwangoe mafisadi. hii tu ndo dawa ya kukomesha mafisadi tanzania. mashaka na shayo waongozeni vijana wenzenu
Article nzuri,ila walengwa ni nani! Mambo mengi uliyoandika yapo dunia ya West! Sidhani kama kuna speculators Tanzania.
ReplyDeleteUkiandika article za nauli, chakula, foleni, watakuelewa.
Mdau hapo juu uliyegusia suala la FOLENI hapo umegonga ikulu; yaani umeongea kitu cha maana mno
ReplyDeleteKT wa Gongo La Mboto
US blogger miyeyusho,una vijiba pia you can't follow up his(Mashaka) argument especially economic trends he is writing about.
ReplyDeleteSasa kama wewe unatoa ushauri kwa serikali mbalimbali mbona,sijaona hata ushauri mmoja kwa serikali yako.
Leave them(shayo and Mashaka) feed us sources ambazo zina great implication to we Tanzanians since i think it is only constructive way to critisizing on going socio economic policies our legislature try to impose.
Baadae.
Shemeji Tarehe Mon Jul 20, 04:42:00 AM,Yaani Nimecheka mpaka mbavu zinauma, Leo ndio nimegundua dawa ya stress. Jamani ukiwa na stress fungueni blog ya michuzi msome comment za watu... hahahahah
ReplyDeleteHumu ndani kuna watu Zero kabisa, lakini wanafurahisha ile mbaya..
wee rais ukishachaguliwa, nipe kazi ya kuwadunda hawa haters. masenene yaliyojaa wivu watakuwa wanapaona mambo ya ndani kaa nuksi vile,nitakuwa kiranja mkali kwel kwel
ReplyDeleteHon: US-Blogger
ReplyDeleteWe are waiting for your swahili version of the article. Hope you can nail it as usual
Mashaka, mambo vipi. Mie nipo hapa Mt. Vernon NY, njoo tuoane ili twende zetu nyumbani kule Kenya. hiyo atiko yako imetulia sana. Karibu sana tuongee siasa bwana, michuzi anabiaga comments zangu ila bado nitakupata kukupaka kisawaswa
ReplyDeleteField Marshal ES
Mt. Vernon, NY
johm mashaka nimekumisssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss!
ReplyDeletemnh na una kingereza kigumu!!....nimesema maimunaaaaaaaaa lools
mdau-kigurunyembe.
nilisema 99% yab comments haziongelei mada ila ni mambo mengine nilisema kama ingeasndikwa kwa kiswahili labda tungeweza kuchangia.
ReplyDeletekingereza jamani ni lugha ya pili watanzania wangapi wanaojua kingereza? blog hii inatembelewa na watu wengi an tunataka tutoe michango kudumisha nchi yetu.
bado nasisitiza mashaka unaona respond ya wachangiaji? hujiulizi kwanini usiandike kwa kiswahili? itakuwa useless na upotezaji wako wa muda kwa kila utakalotuma kwa lugha ya kingereza wadau watabwabwaja kama unavyoona.
Ima wa kigurunyembe ntafute jamani mbona kimya??????? Nimekumiss na mimi mwaaaaaaaaa
ReplyDeleteJohn Mashaka, kama wewe kweli ni mtaalamu mwenye hoja zilizotamalaki kwenye taaluma ya uchumi , unashindwaje kutoa hoja zenye mashiko katika nadharia na mikondo ya kifikra ya elimu-uchumi ama taaluma/nadharia mtambuka ? Na kama nazo pia hazikufai, basi utwambie tukupe mji, utohoe nadharia yako mpya kabisa kama nayo ipo. Sivyo, basi ni muhali kuandika insha-porojo (anecdotal essays) kwenye mas’ala makini kama haya..
ReplyDeleteFrom wikipedia : “ …., EMH (efficient market hypothesis – words in brackets are mine) … says that a stock's price (substitute it by “fuel price”) represents an aggregation of the probabilities of all future outcomes for the company (substitute it by “revenues from oil industry”), based on the best information available at the time….EMH does not require a stock's price (substitute it by “fuel price”) to reflect a company's (substitute it by “revenues from oil industry) future performance, just the best possible estimate or forecast of future performance that can be made with publicly available information…
inaendelea..
imeendelea..
ReplyDelete…Further empirical work has since highlighted the impact transaction costs have on the concept of market efficiency, with much evidence suggesting that any anomalies pertaining to market inefficiencies are the result of a cost benefit analysis made by those willing to incur the cost of acquiring the valuable information in order to trade on it. Additionally, the concept of liquidity is a critical component to capturing "inefficiencies" in tests for abnormal returns…”
Kuna nadharia kuu tano (nne pamoja na ya behavioralists) zinazojikita kujaribu kuelezea jinsi masoko yanavyojiendesha: ‘Usilaumu mwewe, kipanga yuwesha kuku’/’usimlaumu dobi, kaniki rangi yake’..
Uzeng!
THIS ARTICLE IS PURE AND TOO ACADEMIC WATU WINGI HAWATAMUELEWA NI WALE TU AMBAO WAMESOMA AMA INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, SECURITIES AND IVESTMENT, KWANI TERMS NYINGI HAPO MTU WA KAWAIDA ZITAMPIGA CHENGA, LAKINI YOTE YALIYOELEZWA NI SAHIHI HAMNA UBISHI. PENGINE WATU WANAOFANYA KAZI KWENYE MASOKO YA HISA PIA WANAWEZA KUAMBULIA KITU HATA KAMA HAWAJASOMEA ANGA HIZO.
ReplyDeleteI read this article attentively to try to ascertain important issues Mr Mashaka tries to convey.
ReplyDeleteI also read couple of comments that most really don't follow up issues in this article.
i ask why?Surely,the writer has good command of english and tries to show his professionalism on economic trends particulary indicators(green shoots).
Mr Mashaka has to ascertain issues that are particulary RELEVANT,RELIABLE and UNDERSTANDABLE to an ordinary Tanzanian.
The objective of an article should significantly attempt to explain current economic situation eg recession,rising unemployment,deflation,SME(small and medium size enterprises)issues as they try to stay in business,government plans and policies.
The future is uncertain as we didnot predict financial meltdown and unexpected rising of oil and food prices.So indicators play important role to ascertain global outlook.
So Mr Mashaka,please try to offer a solution,practical measures our leaders should take to ensure people stay in employment ie either at reduced pay,SME see improved outlook on growth,increase in consumer and investors confidence as we see improvement in Markets around the world and a power of pound sterling over a dollar etc or trends of Tsh.Inflation and interest rates.
Your articles will serve a purpose if you address the above issues to an ordinary reader like me other than writing about futures and options SWAPS and delivertive instruments such as securities and hedges.They have got to ensure UNDERSTANDABILITY,and RELIABLE for a user to take on board.
I suggest you shouldn't be naive to thinking that you will have significant influence through the use of rhetoric and complex language to demonstrate your brilliance.Touch issues that will move one from point to point for readers to focus on issues that form a strong debate.
Thank you for reading.
Mdau(John) UK
Kaka Michuzi!
ReplyDeleteCould I send you my articles that reflect reality of issues concerning Tanzanian economy,social responsibilities,politics,financial markets etc.If possible,could I get privileges Mr Mashaka and Dr Shayo get.
I know you don't know me to deserve a place but there are mutual benefits we can enjoy as i will focus on relevant contemporary issues for a reader to get a grip on our drift.English enriches knowledge if is simple and clear,and is a language i will use.
asante kaka
Mdau(john) UK