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| John Mashaka |
Greece, a member of the Euro is headed to the polls this weekend, and likelihood that they may opt out of the union is increasing by the day, following the painful austerity measures imposed upon them by the Euro leaders such as Germany, and France. Spain and Italy are also hanging by the thread because the Euro problem seems to have a contagion effect; Greece default will compel Spain to follow the path, and perhaps Italy
On Wednesday, Spanish credit worthiness was downgraded to Baa3, which is basically a junk status by the Moody’s ratings agency, pushing interest rates to 7% on their 10 year bonds; this is making borrowing extremely difficult for the Spaniards. It is the first time the debt laden Spain is experiencing this sort of predicament since joining the Euro in 1999. The Italian 10- year bond yield rose to a record high 6.29% by the end of Thursday’s trading day
Even though the fallout from Greeks and Spain’s possible default could be felt right away in the financial and commodity markets, it will with certainty cause chaos in the global capital markets with Dow Jones tumbling 900 points, LSE, TSE, and other exchanges trading at their lowest levels for a couple of days before stabilizing.
Most analysts believe that the Euro crisis will bruise the sluggish US economic recovery; however it will not sink it. It will on the other hand give a severe beating to the developing nations with trade ties to Europe. China the greatest European exporter will be the number one victim of the second wave of a global recession
World Bank’s recent report is painting a very pessimistic outlook on the global economy, forecasting a growth of 5.3%, a drop from 6.1% from 2011. The report went further to warn on a possible effect on the emerging markets which includes decline in industrial productivity
Tanzania and the rest of East Africa have deeper economic –trade- ties with the European Union. Most of the country’s Banks and corporations are European based. Our country’s trade volume with the EU is bigger than that of any other country or bloc of nations. An immediate shock, could bring an adverse effects into our economy, more so to our currency and productivity
In the aftermath of 2008 economic crisis, the US Federal Government compelled all major financial institutions to conduct periodic internal simulations “stress test” depicting various scenarios to assess their vulnerability and risk exposure in the face of another major financial crisis; so far majority will survive. Even if Greece, Spain and Italy defaults at the same time, the US will be shaken but not in the magnitude it was during the 2008 crisis
Should Euro economic crisis escalates with Greece, Spain, and Italy defaulting, what are the contingency plans in place or chances that we will survive economically without severely being affected? How ready are we?
Mungu Ibariki Tanzania
John Mashaka
My friend Mashaka,
ReplyDeleteYour question is easily answered, no contigency plan.... None, nada..
Our nation's economy is run by luck not specific plans. Oh no, I should isntead say tunaomba Mungu atupishe na hayo majanga ya Ulaya. Make last time inflation went to the roof.
Now go and read the budget presented yesterday.. when the prime rate is over 12%
Brother Michuzi I'm not trying to suck all oxygen in Bongo and have everyone out of breath, lakini hii mada ni ya ajabu sana. Badala ya watu kutoa mjadala wa matatizo ya nchi yetu, Tanzania na mbinu ya kuyakabili tunaongelea Greece, Italy and Spain. Hawa wazungu wametukwamisha sana na wao wemekwama, tuangalie yetu . Tuna wachumi wengi sana wa vitabu Tanzania tunataka wachumi wa vitendo hapa bongo. Tell us something we don't know achana na wazungu toa wazo ya tufanyeje tuendelee?
ReplyDeleteNajua hard ball comments kama haya hukupa taabu sana Michuzi Ku-publish kwani wasomi na waandishi wengi hupenda kusifiwa na siyo kukosolewa. Kazi kwako Ankal ukitaka chapisha au bania.
"Kila mtu anataka kwenda mbinguni lakini hakuna hata mmoja anayetaka kufa" Hii inakuaje lakini? Ni kichekesho.
Naamini kabisa kwa akili yangu yote, kila mtanzania anataka kuiona bongo kuwa nchi nzuri ya kuishi, na hii ni pamoja na kuwa na elimu bora, maji safi, umeme wa uhakika, mabarabara mazuri, teknologia yetu wenyewe, huduma bora za afya, kutokuwa na mbu na nzi(kuwatokomeza), mazingira mazuri ya kuishi pasipo mavumbi, you name it, lakini hakuna hata mmoja wetu anayetaka kujishughulisha kufanya haya kutokea (in order to make all these to happen). Where are we Tanzanian people?
Upo wapi ule moyo tulipopata uhuru? We need collective effort and unity of action and we need it now. Let's start to do something, let's balance between politics and entertainment vs production. By production means industrial products and agricultural produces. Endelea kuandika kila siku ndugu Mjengwa wapo watanzania watajiuliza na wataanza kufanya kitu. Mabadiliko uanza na mtu mmoja au kundi dogo la watu na wengine kujiunga, na baadaye tutakuwa na taifa tulilokusudia. Kitu cha msingi tusikasirike tunaposolewa ni kitu kizuri sana kwa maendeleo ya nchi ndiyo maana blogs na vyombo vingine vya habari vina kazi ya ziada kuwaelimisha na kuwataarifu watanzania ( to inform public) nini kinaendelea ndani ya nchi yao. Kumradhi Bro Michuzi kama nimechafua hali ya hewa.
What is your major malfunction Mr. John Mashaka? What is a minus of thirty and twenty? Is it eight? Uh?
ReplyDeleteI think you don't get it. This is an economic saturation. The time for Europe is gone, and United States is around the corner. It is time for Asia paciffic and Africa. Asian nations are delivering it African countries including Tanzania is disappointment, practicing corruption thinking it is a smart move, getting rich without producing. How will that be?
Stick around with this blog pal probably I have a lot to teach you. It is all about Corruption and poverty in Africa, it is all about lazyness, it is all about lack of responsibility and seriousness it is all about you, me and somebody else not critisizing each other for our country good. Trust me John most of people are aware and well informed about Eurozone crisis. Let's talkTanzania brother, I hope you won't hate me and I hope Ankal, you will not act as a refareeeeee. Lets build Tanzania with directly touching ideals. God bless Tanzania God bless Tanzanian people.
I like commenting in swahili but an article pushed me in this language. I advise you not to get very deep on the matter just search for helpful knowledge to know what's going on in the world and take advantage of the situation.
Mimi naomba kuandika kwa kiswahili.
ReplyDeletehoja iliyotolewa hapo juu ni nzuri lakini kwa sisi wa TZ haitusaidii.
Hii ni sawa na tajiri akiwa na mafua au akikohoa wewe kama ni mfanyakazi wake basi utakuwa unawaza hivi tajiri akiwa taabani mimi nitaishi vipi? Tatizo ni kuwa uchumi wetu ni wa kutegemea kinachoendelea ulaya.
Kwa hiyo kinachotakiwa ni kuwa lazima tutafute mbinu ambazo zitatusaidia pindi uchumi wa ulaya unavyopata matatizo basi nasi tuwe na mbinu za kujikinga.
ni hayo tu
Mr Nyamaimewahi Kunikabashingoni
@ Sat Jun 16, 05:22:00 - please get real because what Mr. Mashaka asks is extremely important and the aftershock will no doubt shake our country.
ReplyDelete@Mr. Mashaka: Well do and I always adore your thoughts and contributions in important matters. My answer to your Q though, is that we'll find yet another excuse - blaming Euro for our inability to deliver strong and tangible results, ineffiency policies, corruption, non accountability and lack of vision.
Tanzania's GDP per Capita is about USD 1500. We are not deeply conencted to EU economies to be heavily effected by their economic problems. If anything, EU will reduce foreign aid in which we are heavily dependent on since independence.
ReplyDeleteOur exports to them are very limited. Our exchange rates depend not on the world market of our goods and services but on demand and supply of aid dollars coming into the country. If you doubt that, Mashaka, try to sell your Tanzanian Shilling outside East Africa.
We lose millions of dollars through tax evation, corruption and red tape caused by government bureaucrats and the fact that many Tanzanians lack modern education to deal with International Trade and lack of finance amongst the general population. We are also lazy by nature. We don't see opportunities but when Chinese see them in our country, we cry foul. We also lack knowledge to look far. When other countries are allowing foreign citizens to settle down when they bring investments like Canada and USA (one million dollars minimum), we try to make it as difficult as possible for foreigners or even Tanzanians who have dual nationalities to invest in Tanzania because somehow "they will cheat us". This kind of attitude will not make us developed in any forseeable future.
When we start to sell cars, machineries and high tech equipments to the rest of the world, then we will be heavily effected by world economic crisis. Right now, we are not in the radar economically speaking and nobody notice we exist. An easy example which comes in mind is Thailand and Japan. When Bangkok was flooded last year, production of cars stopped in Japan because they were dependant on Thai workers to produce spare parts. Also, Chinese wages are increasing, many industries are moving to Vietnam or Cambodia to reduce costs. Can you name one country which might be effected by the shut down of Tanzanian economy Mr. Mashaka?
Every country can attract tourists, many countries have gold deposits but what distinguishes a developed country from a poor one is not just recources available but how the people get educated, strong work ethics, good infastructures,clean, business-friendly and efficient government policies and forward thinking civil workers. If having abundant resources was the only factor which can make a country rich, then Japan should be the poorest country in the world because Japanese people import most of their recources from the rest of the world.
mr mashaka excellent analysis. however, can tell you than we don't have contingency plans even to buy our next meals. we are surviving by the grace of God. Thats is the Africa style. so don't be surprised or shocked by my response. we have something called bongonomics where everything runs on its own
ReplyDeletemy 20cents
TO JOHN MASHAKA................
ReplyDeleteUSA AND EUROPE NEED CONTINGENCY PLANS NOT TANZANIA.....
MASHAKA I THINK YOU HAVE LEFT BONGO SEVERAL YEARS AGO AND NOW YOU HAVE NO CLUE WHAT IS HAPPENING. TODAY TANZANIA IS NUMBER ONE IN CORRUPTION COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS JUST BEHIND BY INCH TO CONGO. TODAY TANZANIA IS NUMBER ONE IN HER CITIZENS LIVE IN DARKNESS FOR NO REASONS, NUMBER ONE ON ROUGH AND POOR HEALTHCARE, NUMBER ONE IN EVERY THING YET HER PEOPLE ARE NUMBER ONE IN LIVING LARGE. TRUST ME MASHAKA WE ACTUALLY DON`T NEED AND OUR LEADERS ARE WELCOME THE DEFAULT NEWS IN FULL HANDS WE WILL FIGURE OUT HAKUNA KITU CHA KUTUSHINDA WATANZANIA. MR MASHAKA IF YOU COME TO TANZANIA YOU WILL FIND A VERY DIFFERENT COUNTRY WITH FULL OF GOLD TANZANITE GAS DIAMOND AND NOW OIL ON THE SHORE OF KIGAMBONI AND ZANZIBAR. WE ARE RICHER THAN SPAIN GREECE AND MANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES. THEY CAN NOT FUNCTIONS WITHOUT US. SO YOUR MENTALITY THAT IF SPAIN AND GREECE DEFAULT THEN TANZANIA SHOULD HAVE A PLAN YOU ARE CHEATING ON YOURSELF MY FRIEND BONGO IS A BIG SURPRISE FIRST WE ARE USED TO ALL WEATHER OF PROBLEMS WE ARE BULLET PROOF WE CAN SURVIVE ANY CATASTROPHIC. DONT YOU KNOW PEOPLE HERE LIVE WITH UTAPELI AND WE CAN TAPELI USA UK AND GERMAN AND FRANCE POUR ALL MONEY TO OUR COUNTRY? HOW MANY TIMES WE HAVE DONE THAT AND THE MONEY END UP ON OUR POCKETS? MASHAKA THANKS FOR YOUR CONCERNS BUT TRUST ME WE ARE OKAY AND WE DONT NEED PLANS. EUROPE WILL CARE US NO CHOICE GOD GAVE US MOUTH WE CAN TALK AND GET HELP WE NEED. USA AND EUROPE ARE THE ONES NEED CONTINGENCY PLANS.
Thank you John Mashaka,i think Tanzania has good plan to move forward,but our plan is good enough and right one? my opinion is not.
ReplyDeleteThese are the reasons why;
1. Corruption is high in all levels
2. We comsume what we don't produce
(cars,electronic products.. etc)
3. We are selling our resources for cheap to foreign investors.i.e Agrisol Energy.
4. Greedy,mismanagement and bad governance.
5.No best strategic plan to keep talents or attract talents to comeback home.
Solution is to eliminate,improve or reduce all of the above.
War on resoures is biggest one.
Tanzania resources should be protected,benifits and utilized by their own people.
MdauLA
One of the most important factor needed in bringing rapid development in any country is education. If we are not able to express our opinions in proper English or Swahili, how can we compete with the rest of the world?
ReplyDeleteI have been living abroad for many years and have yet to meet a single Tanzanian, schooled in public schools who can debate effectively in either English or Swahili. Whatever happened to debate programs in our school systems?
Only two people managed to present their thoughts effectively in either languages, the rest failed miserably. I should know, I teach in university.
Mdau hapo juu, ni kweli kabisa communication skills zetu watanzania bado sana. Kunatatizo pia la kushindwa ku focus on issues instead to shift the debate on personality. Nimesoma public schools in Tz kuanzia primary hadi chuo - luckily I can communicate reasonably well. I know this as I work for an International organization.
ReplyDeleteHa Ha Ha! @ Anon Sun Jun 17, 05:06:00 - PLEASE drop your ego and change career path at your earliest opportunity! Pls tell me you are not 'teaching in Univerity' here in TZ because your students are wasting their time in your Lectures!
ReplyDeleteKikibwa hapa ni seriousness! mdau hapo juu unasema juu ya resources na produce lakini ukweli ni kwamba kazi zetu zinaoneka feki sana nje belive it or not! Mfano mzuri migodi yetu ukilinganisha dhahabu ya kutoka nchi nyingine za kwetu ni makapi! simply hivyo vinyago! ukiangalia kinyago kilichochongwa Tz na West Africa vya kibongo vimepasuka nina nyufa ....akkrh! we have a long way to go! Customer services, watu hatuna ile lugha ya biashara ni kuangaliana tu kwa shingo upande! I better stop .....
ReplyDeleteAnon of Sun Jun 17 04:05:00 PM, please read carefully before making a commentary on others. I have mentioned that "I have been living abroad for many years" on the second paragraph.
ReplyDeleteWhat part of that sentence somehow managed to confuse you into thinking that I live in Tanzania?
And, you have also failed in understanding the meaning of "ego". An ego is an inflated feeling of pride in your superiority to others. I have never disrespected nor made myself feel superior in my commentary. I simply commented on the poor usage of English and Swahili by many users of this forum when they are called upon to debate on any subject. It is a clear sign of deterioration of our educational standards in our country. If you call that an ego, then, Sir, you have just proven my point about poor education standards in Tanzanian public schools.